Re: Arrrrrrrrrrrrggggg!!

From: Jim Carlock (anonymous_at_localhost.com)
Date: 03/05/05 

Date: Sat, 05 Mar 2005 15:29:06 GMT

Hey Beth,

The way it works, is if there is no market then the products fade
away and companies stop producing the old technology. CD's put
turntables out of business. Cassette tapes put 8-tracks out of
business. In fact micro-cassettes might have put 4-inch tapes out
of business. And it's only a matter of time before digital recording
devices put all cassettes out of business, I can see that happening.

Some products come and go, some never take off, some last
forever. The thing that will replace a book will be a computer that
you can hook up to your head that reads microchips (credit card
sized books). :-) I think it'll happen.

Wireless DVD reaching speeds:
  480 Mbps over 3 to 4 meters
  110 Mbps over 11 meters
http://www.dvhardware.net/article4345.html

Regular USB is supposed to support 12 Mbps throughput...
http://www.lowendmac.com/usb/truth.shtml

So I'm thinking that the only things stopping a flash memory hard
drive from taking off right at the moment is the BUS that it's
hooked up to.

I think we are less than 4 years away from ALL mechanical
hard drives disappearing. They'll be like 8-track tapes. It's only
a matter of time now. Alot of people can get by with a 10GB
flash memory drive.

USB 1.0 supports a theoretical tx rate of 12Mbps.
 - actual real transfer rate timings seem to be around 5.7Mbps
USB 2.0 seems to supports a theoretical tx rate of 480Mbps.
 - given the tx rates of USB 1.0, USB 2.0 should be approx.
    228 Mbps.
http://www.compukiss.com/populartopics/entertainmenthtm/article793.htm

HDD transfer rates:
http://www.pcguide.com/ref/hdd/perf/extSpeed-c.html

I don't know what the effective transfer rate to pull things out
of Flash is, the advertisements I'm seeing are using the theoretical
maximums of the USB bus for USB devices.

I believe the first introduction of a solid-state hard disk drive
will be the most beautiful thing the computer industry ever
witnessed and the effect will be instantaneous, everyone will
want one and everyone will buy one. Once they are introduced,
no marketing needed, mechanical hard drives WILL BE an
8-track tape... no one will want one of those mechanical devices,
except perhaps to use a tape backup? 

--
Jim Carlock
Please post replies to newsgroup.
"Beth" wrote:
Jim Carlock wrote:
> "Sevag Krikorian" wrote:
> > Don't feel so bad.  I recently sent my JumpDrive packed with
> > 120 megas of data through the wash/dry cycle. The shock of
> > the ordeal separated the microchips from the board.
>
> I've sent a 250MB USB MiniCruzer (SanDisk) through the wash
> without any problems. I wouldn't recommend anyone do it, but
> the SanDisk thing is a USB "chip". Works great. It doesn't have a
> disk at all and acts more like a Removable RamDisk once the
> system recognizes it.
>
> Was cheap when I bought it two years ago. The one I got is 256MB
> in size, but they're up to 4GB now...
> http://www.sandisk.com/corporate/media/photos-cruzer-mini.asp
>
> SanDisk http://www.sandisk.com is advertising some waterproof
> models as well on their homepage. I don't think mine is waterproof,
> I sent it through the dryer as well. Nothing was lost and I don't
> recommend anyone do this. The mention of waterproof was off
> the homepage link there.
>
> Sony Was supposed to release a 40GB Flash Card at the end of
> 2003 for certain camcorders...
>
> I don't know anything about this product, but it looks like it is
> presented as a 40GB flash memory... For about $269.00.
> http://www.freecom.com/ecProduct_detail.asp?ID=1142
>
> The end of mechanical hard drives coming soon?
What? Like the end of "Moore's Law"? Or the end of the floppy disk? Or the
end of the x86 architecture?
No, it never works that way, in practice...what's the saying? "New ideas
never succeed; They simply wait around for the proponents of the old ideas
to eventually die" ;)...
It's a bit of a "myth" that probably needs countering: Producing fantastic
"new technology" in absolutely no way whatsoever makes the old stuff simply
"vanish" or anything...you know, books didn't disappear when radio
appeared, radio didn't disappear when TV appeared...letters haven't
disappeared because phones appeared, phones haven't disappeared because
Email appeared...they just all slowly "slot" into their little
"niches"...settle down and level out at their true "non-hype" level of
usefulness for certain tasks...
The truth is that the whole "obselete by new technology" thing? Stop and
think who _benefits_ for a second...yes, it's an industry "myth" to keep
that old "upgrade cycle" constantly moving...that is not to say that the
new technologies aren't so superior to their older counterparts that,
eventually, it really is naturally the "preferred option"...but, well, this
"Apple Newton will make books obselete! Interactive movies will make books
obselete! PDAs will make books obselete!" thing (apparently, _everything_
ar one time or another, will "make books obeselete"...geez Louise! What did
books ever do to deserve such constant malicious attack!?? ;)...it's
complete nonsense...
The sole thing that can make books "obselete" is _ILLITERACY_...
Anyway, over to the reason for posting...there's a "Click Online" TV
programme on BBC News (and BBC World) that's about "technology news"...and
you talking about the durability of those SanDisk flash memory cards
reminded me of a short report they covered on the show recently...
Scanning their archive, I managed to find the quite silly report, where,
basically, the reporter decides to "test" - in not too "scientific" a
manner - just how "durable" these flash memory storage cards are:
RealPlayer ("high" quality):
http://stream.servstream.com/ViewWeb/BBCWorld/File/worl_click_100205_three_
hi.rm?Media=53477
...and just in case you don't have a particularly speedy modem, the same in
"low" quality:
RealPlayer ("low" quality):
http://stream.servstream.com/ViewWeb/BBCWorld/File/worl_click_100205_three_
lo.rm?Media=53475
It's a very _literal_ demonstration of the "durability of flash memory"!!
Beth :)

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