Re: What is wrong with this. (files)

Richard Heathfield wrote:

jab3 said:

pete wrote:

With trouble shooting in general,
be it either automotive or programming,
when somebody tells you that they've got a problem
and that they know what the problem definitely isn't,
then that's the first place I want to start looking.
My experience is that there is about 50% chance
that that's the problem.

pete - that jibes pretty well with my experience, too, although I'd have
put the probability somewhat higher.

Since any given statement either is or is not a problem, any given
statement has a 50% chance of being the problem.

If you truly believe that two mutually exclusive possibilities are
necessarily of equal probability, I offer you the following bet:

Given suitable precautions to prevent cheating, you will put down $5000
and I will put down $10000 - so there's $15000 on the table - and then a
trusted third party will put a hundred fair coins (one side heads, the
other side tails) into a sack, shake 'em around a bit, and then spill them
onto a tabletop. Either they will all come out heads, or they won't, so
that's 50-50, right? So - if they all come down heads, you get to keep the
$15000, despite only a $5000 stake. That's good odds for you. If the other
50% chance happens, though, I get the $15000 instead.

Deal?


Well, I don't think my statement works given real probability analysis. (It
was late and the 50% chance comment just struck me as funny) However, I
also don't think your bet is strictly analogous to what I said. I didn't
say the whole program is either all right or all wrong. I said any given
line theoretically has a 50% chance of being right or wrong. Your bet, were
it analogous, would be that any given coin has a 50% chance of being either
heads or tails. But I would imagine the actual probability of any given
line of code being right or wrong is based on the person doing the coding,
the language, the complexity of the program, the emotional state of the
person, etc.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Krigman article about sevens due
    ... You are tossing a fair coin. ... The probability is .5 for heads and .5 for tails. ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)
  • Re: Krigman article about sevens due
    ... You are tossing a fair coin. ... What are the chances of getting exactly what probability ... tails and half heads for this to be true. ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)
  • Re: Distribution and probability
    ... If something has a 50% chance of happening, then what is the chance of ... the probability that 8 coins in a cigar box ... total number of possible outcomes. ... Asking what the probability of getting 60 heads when 100 coins ...
    (sci.math)
  • Re: Roulette
    ... times you'll see that it doesn't always come up heads 5 times and tails 5 ... on the next flip of the coin there is a 50% chance it will ... Its going to be BLACK, because BLACK is due to hit after 8 REDs in a ...
    (alt.vacation.las-vegas)
  • Re: Krigman article about sevens due
    ... The probability is .5 for heads and .5 for tails. ... probability, you'll expect to get six sevens, five sixes and five eights, four ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)