Re: NEWS for Fujitsu COBOL users



"William M. Klein" <wmklein@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:xvmTk.163083$Fs5.45452@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I don't know how "current" you need to be to receive Fujitsu emails, but if
you haven't hears, please read the press release at:

http://www.netcobol.com/news/prelease/pr20081113.htm

I think if you have ever bought any version of Fujitsu COBOL you will
receive this mail. I did, and I haven't "been current" for many years.

To me PERSONALLY, the thing that will be MOST interesting is that
"NetCOBOL" (outside of Japan) will no longer be able to rely on other
Fujitsu software/hardware to support its development and maintenance.

My experience has been that there has been very little "development and
maintenance" of the Fujitsu product in the USA. I don't see the formation of
Alchemy as changing this very much. It is very likely that ties between
Alcemy and Fujitsu Japan will remain good, even if the new company is
officially separate.



With no "real" evidence, I have always viewed Fujitsu's Windows and
Unix/Linux COBOL as a "lost leader" (if that's the term) and seriously
doubted that it had a business case that could break even, much less make
a profit.

The term is "loss leader"... a product offered at/below cost to entice
people into buying other products.

I don't think that is a fair description of the Fujitsu Products, Bill.

These are excellent products. There is no real reason why Alchemy should not
be able to sell them and make a profit.

The problem in the past has been very poor support, and a disastrous cost
cutting exercise that saw many of the people who really were able to support
the products laid off.

I see two things as leading to the erosion of the Fujitsu customer base:

1. Absolutely abysmal support.
2. The introduction of the remote licensing system, which treated the user
base as if they were criminals and put mission critical applications at risk
for anyone foolish enough to use Fujitsu COBOL as the basis for their
business. Despite the "30 day" assurance, no-one running a business is going
to be happy with not being able to have COBOL installed on backup servers
that can be switched in immediately should a problem arise. The process
assumed that the regular customer base was pirating the software; a false
assumption in my experience. I know and have worked with a number of Fujitsu
customers and none of them would consider distributing illegal copies of the
software.

Despite the fact that this system can be easily circumvented using modern
approaches, I don't know of anyone (self included :-)) who would do that in
order to on-sell the product.

Alchemy is going to focus on Migration of COBOL apps and they have some very
good tools for doing this. They are still MicroSoft partners and that should
be of considerable benefit in the marketplace they are now focusing on.

It isn't just about selling COBOL compilers.

To me, this was part of (most of?) the reason that Micro Focus had
run-time fees and Fujitsu did NOT.

I disagree. Not requiring Run Time fees was a very important competitive
edge for Fujitsu to get a share of the workstation COBOL market.

Unfortunately, they eroded that share because of the problems mentioned
above.

Micro Focus have aggressively marketed their product to a business user base
who will swallow the Run Time fees, as long as they get proper support for
the products. Let's face it, the road for Micro Focus has not been an easy
one either; they have had their share of upheaval and mismanagement. Stephen
Kelly has done and is doing an excellent job of re-inventing the company and
he is an outstanding CEO. Ron Langer, who has taken the reins for Alchemy,
is also a very experienced and competent manager who has probably learned
much and recognised mistakes from the past with the Fujitsu products. The
fact that Langer has decided to split Migration into a separate company
(Alchemy) is a good move which enables renewed focus. With adequate
financial backing, and proper investment and direction, I see Alchemy as
having good potential; there is no need for them to license the Run Time,
any more than there is really a need for Micro Focus to do so. (Despite
their protestations to the contrary, RT fees are really just icing for MF.
The real money is in providing tools, services, and consultancy.)

We cannot know how many prospects decided against MF BECAUSE of the Run Time
fees. The company opted to focus on a market that will pay these fees as a
cost of doing business, PROVIDED they get proper support and assistance
(which MF are providing very well).

In the broad scheme of things, Run Time fees are neither here nor there.

Both companies have realised that COBOL is in decline. Despite talking it
up, nobody is really fooled into thinking they can continue COBOL
development indefinitely. There is a VAST market in assisting people (mainly
Mainframe sites, but not exclusively...) to move away from COBOL. No-one
wants to throw away their existing investment, and neither should they have
to, but the end result is simply inevitable. The procedural paradigm is not
going to serve businesses into this century. Anyone who can provide tools
and support to ease the transition into Objects, is likely to make a very
good living :-) (I am currently devoting ALL of my surplus time and energy
into doing this and the results are "promising". Both MF and Fujitsu have
excellent established tools for moving COBOL to a networked platform, but
this is just the beginning. The end point has to be layers and objects
(whether existing COBOL users can see it or not... :-))

It will be very interesting to me to see if "Alchemy Solutions"
- keeps run-time support FREE
and
- breaks even / makes a profit

Well, I wish them well and I really hope they do. It would be very bad for
what's left of this marketplace if it was dominated entirely by ONE service
provider.

They certainly must have a business plan that seems reasonable to one
"investor group" but I am certainly curious how this will play out over
the short, medium, and long-term


I wouldn't mind betting that they are too... :-)

Pete.
--
"I used to write COBOL...now I can do anything."


.

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