Re: My predictions for 2004-2005

From: Oliver Townshend (oliver_at_zip.com.au)
Date: 04/05/04 

Date: Mon, 5 Apr 2004 19:00:50 +1000

> - MS will release Windows XP/64 for AMD and even issue a "64-bit
> Media center" edition, performing realtime video encoding,
> probably in HDTV resolution.

MS will release a version that can run on a 64 bit machine that is
compatible with Intel 32-IA chips and AMD/64 bits. They won't waste their
time with multiple machines.

> - Shortly after the release of XP-64, cheap 64-bit AMD machines
> will appear at Walmart's (US) and ALDI's (Europe). Some
> 64-bit games are bundled. Some people will spend the night in
> front of the shop just to get one.

Like they did with Windows 95? Some people do lead exciting lives.

> - The 64-bit versions of shooter games like DOOM:2005 are
> on the christmas wish list of every schoolkid. There's
> no other area where 64-bit shines more than in games.
> Nintendo, Sega and Sony have a blue Christmas.

Sony releases a 64 bit Playstation and has a merry christmas.

> - Intel will start producing AMD/64 compatible chips, gnashing
> their teeth. And finally implement an integrated memory
> management unit after paying a license fee to AMD.

I'm sorry, haven't they already announced they are going to do this?

> - Visual Studio .NET 2004 or 2005 contains at least one native
> compiler for AMD/64.

Doubt it. Maybe a .Net assembly for the AMD.

> - MS and hardware manufacturers will be unwilling to maintain
> two binary incompatible 64-bit versions of their software,
> thus signing the death warrant to Intel's previous 64-bit
> chips (Itanium). As happened to the DEC Alpha. There can
> only be one, like Highlander said.

Yep. Marketing triumphs over technology again.

> - MSOffice 2005 will appear in two *native* versions, 32-bit
> and 64-bit. Definitely not good for the credibility of the
> .NET platform.

Absolutely not. If it was going to happen, it would already have been
announced and/or rumoured. It will still be 32 bit and will be the final
non .Net version.

> - Ulead, Avid and Adobe will release 64-bit *native* applications
> for graphics, audio and video, running circles around the 32-bit
> versions of the same software. Most filters run in realtime.
> The 64-bit *native* version of Autocad 2005 will be the "killer
> app" for 64-bit computers in office environments.
> As a consequence, companies like Dell and IBM will start selling
> 64-bit AMD and Intel PC's in office environments.

These are the same organisations that sell crap PCs with Video Cards good
enough to play Doom 1 on? Autocad might be a killer version, but how many
people will use it?

> - 64-bit native software will slowly take over, even though
> the .NET framework is by default installed on every machine.
> It becomes quieter in the .NET scene. The emphasis of dotnet
> will shift towards server-side applications and shareware
> (smaller download size).

Centrino technology will take over, with more core tasks integrated into a
low voltage CPU set, including a minimal subset of AMD 64 bit commands.
This will become the baseline ubiquitous computer as people realize that the
current 32 bit power they have is sufficient for most tasks and they don't
need a million megahertz to get jobs done.

> - Virus writers will discover loopholes in .NET and profit
> from the small executable size and platform independency.
> MS will release weekly security updates to the .NET
> framework.

But at least the security updates can be fixed centrally not remotely.

> - Borland will finally start developing a 64-bit native Delphi
> compiler in 2005. Release date: Sometime in 2006.

Maybe.

> - Some company or maybe the open source community will make
> native versions of C# and parts of the .NET framework
> "because the language is so elegant".

Isn't that already happening?

Oliver Townshend

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