Re: The 64-bit Strategy Session commence.
From: Mike Swaim (mswaim_at_odin.mdacc.tmc.edu)
Date: 06/04/04
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Date: 4 Jun 2004 10:37:06 -0700
Eric Schreiber wrote:
> However, I don't think it is at all risky - the computing world is
> almost certainly going to head into 64-bit territory. The only real
> question is one of timing. Will 64-bit come into it's own this year,
> or will it be one or two years down the line?
New machines isn't the issue, though. It's a question of the
installed base. Back when MS released Windows 95 (their first
mainstream 32 bit OS), the Pentium was the hot new processor, and the
'486 was mainstream. Those are second and third generation 32 bit
processors, respectively.
When MS releases 64 bit Windows XP this fall, AMD's 64 bit chips will
be a little over a year old, and Intel's 64 bit P4s will be less than 3
months old. They'll make up a relatively small percentage of the
installed base to run your software on.
I'm going to divide office computers into 3 groups to see how IT is
going to handle going to 64 bit, and how that affects development tools.
1) SQL Servers
2)Compute/Middle Tier/Web Servers
3)End user computers
Group 1 can easily go to 64 bit (if it hasn't already) because there
generally aren't that many, and they can be upgraded piecemeal. It's
also easy to see where there would be benefits for heavily loaded
servers with large databases. This doesn't matter, since the client
doesn't (or at least, shouldn't) care if it's talking to a 32 bit or 64
bit server.
Groups 3, on the other hand, won't go 64 bit for years to come. There
are simply too many machines to economically upgrade them all, and
keeping track of which machines are 32 bit and which ones are 64 bit
will be a nightmare. So, while people might be running 64 bit Windows
on 64 bit hardware, the software will probably still be 32 bit. I think
that this will easily be the case 3 years from now.
That leaves group 2. It should be relatively easy to move to 64 bit,
since you can do it with one set of servers at a time, rather than all
at once. Unfortunately, it's a relatively small portion of the market,
and I don't see everyone moving that way particularly fast. If a 32 bit
solution works now, I don't see a pressing need to upgrade soon.
In short, while I think that 64 bit native code's probably a big
winner over 64 bit .net, I don't think that the market's there yet for
a 64 bit Delphi to pay for itself.
-- Mike Swaim swaim@hal-pc.org at home | Quote: "Boingie"^4 Y,W & D MD Anderson Dept. of Biostatistics & Applied Mathematics mpswaim@mdanderson.org or mswaim@odin.mdacc.tmc.edu at work Disclaimer: Yeah, like I speak for MD Anderson.
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- In reply to: Eric Schreiber: "Re: The 64-bit Strategy Session commence."
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