Re: D64, or Why Borland Ought to NOT Work on a 64-bit Version of DelphiRight Now

From: Bob Dawson (bdawson_at_idtdna.com)
Date: 02/01/05 

Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2005 08:33:45 -0600

"Dennis Landi" wrote
>
> If your are using this as a reason not to build a 64-bit compiler
> then its a red-herring.

Actually I've explained before that software sales do not necessarily track
hardware sales in a linear relationship. 64bit PC sales constitute a cap on
the 64bit software market, nothing more. The market cap may be considerably
higher than the actual market.

> Borland just needs enough sales to justify
> the cost of the compiler.

Borland needs expectation of enough sales that would not otherwise occur to
more than (profit) justify the cost of the compiler. That means the actual
market demand for 64bit software that is not already satisfied by .NET's
ability to jit as 64bit on demand. Simply talking machine numbers misses
both of these issues.

> We need to show that a the transition from 32-bit to 64-machines
> is happening at a certain rate to prove that there will be a market
> for a 64-bit compiler.

Again, no one really doubts that this is going to happen.

> We don't have to show that the "installed base" is
> replaced, entirely; but that enough of the transition has occurred;

What, in your view, constitutes 'enough'? In what approximate time frame
will this critical mass occur, for which market segments, and how do those
segments aligh with current or expected Delphi market penetration?

> that's not all. It is also true that a significant portion, certainly
> the overwhelming majority, *will* upgrade their Win32 compiler
> to a Win64 compilation, given the opportunity to do so.

That's possible, but nowhere near as certain as you seem to think. For
example, would I as an individual developer and hobbyist like to upgrade to
D64? Sure--new toy; why not? Do I think I have a business case for it that I
can take to the CIO? No. Not even close to it.

bobD

Relevant Pages

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