Re: What I Think Delphi Needs to Do to Survive
- From: "John Jacobson" <jake@j[nospam]snewsreader.com>
- Date: Fri, 10 Mar 2006 22:40:02 -0600
"Lauchlan M" <LMackinnonAT_NoSpam_ozemailDOTcomDOTau> wrote in message
news:44121ffe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Hmm. With respect to Jake's comments, I'd say 'over what timeframe'?
It's already happened. Chrome was released several months late and after the
initial excitement of a new release the Chrome newsgroups grew so quiet you
could hear crickets. ShineOn went nowhere, and after a whole year still
remains woefully incomplete, and if recent posts are any indication, was
left in a state that makes it difficult to even compile. Advertising for
Chrome has been minimal at best, suggesting that not enough money has come
in for any serious advertising. Read the .NET mags and web sites and see if
you see anything about Chrome past the occasional (and very rare) review.
It's
conceiveable (although I don't think it's likely) that after Delphi is
sold,
it gets sold again, and discontinued. Maybe afterwards, Delphi developers
go
to VS.NET, and choose Chrome with it, and Jakes predictionbecomes clearly
falsified.
It is only conceivable in the same sense that a meteorite could conceivably
fall from space and hit George Bush in the head. Sure, just about anything
could happen. The interesting question is what is likely to happen. Many of
the Delphi programmers that were going to .NET have already done so, and
except for a couple of exceptions, it's obvious that almost none of them
chose Chrome when or after they made the transition. (eg. Traffic on the
public Chrome newsgroups is sometimes so light that days will sometimes pass
without a single post.) There is no reason to suppose that this is going to
change in the long run if the final death knell for Delphi peals forth,
unless you think that current Delphi hold-outs are somehow *more* inclined
to choose Chrome than the ones that have already gone over to VS.NET.
Who knows? Anyway, my point is that you can't evaluate
predictions like this until something happens to clearly establish final
outcomes (e.g. RO or Delphi being discontinued) and that hasn't happened
and
hopefully won't happen.
Nonsense. If you are going to wait until absolute certainty has been
acheived before you think you can evaluate the soundness of a prediction or
expectation then you are going to be forever unable to say anything at all.
In fact, it entirely misses the whole point of philosophical skepticism to
think that certainty is the only vantage point from which one ought to judge
any statement.The fact of the matter is that we deal with statements about
stochastic processes all the time, it is impossible to operate in this
universe in any other fashion. We know almost nothing, but the universe is
infinite with respect to our puny little existence.
Therefore by definition they occupy a niche. But maybe it's a good niche
to
have? Who knows, it depends on their business case, revenue and costs.
Maybe good for RemObjects to have, since they have maybe two or three people
devoted to Chrome, and *might* be recouping their expenses (though I
seriously doubt it). Useless for anyone else that leaves Delphi because it
is a niche product or gets no serious mind share with their bosses and
clients. After all, almost all the non-technical reasons that one might
leave Delphi apply to Chrome as well.
By the way, here was the actual prediction I made about Chrome, in 12/2004
( http://blogs.slcdug.org/jjacobson/archive/2004/12/30/775.aspx ) :
"Prediction #1: Chrome will be to RemObjects what Kylix was to Borland,
maybe even more so. Currently Chrome is scheduled for release by the end of
June according to the RemObjects website. My guess is that there are some
individuals that will snap up the release within a few days of release, for
curiosity's sake, and a few others will snap it up in an attempt to do
Object Pascal in VS.NET. This early spike in demand may lead the guys at
RemObjects to believe that Chrome is going to be a hit, and then.the
drop-off."
Can you seriously argue that this is not what happened?
.
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