Re: Java’s Future Lies In Mobile?

On 14-03-2011 09:54, Joshua Cranmer wrote:
On 03/12/2011 06:12 PM, Dirk Bruere at NeoPax wrote:
Processing power and bandwidth are only going to get cheaper for the
next 30 years

My understanding is that we are beginning to hit physical limits. Hell,
clock speeds won't go up anymore because we can't cool chips. Cramming
more transistors onto the same size die will become impossible at around
11nm technology or so; any smaller, and quantum effects start to break
things. That means that Moore's Law will finally break down around 2015,
unless we switch from semiconductor-based computing.

In other words, within the next decade or so, the only tenable way to
increase processing power is parallelization, and parsing is still
rather serial...

I would not expect Moore's law broken i 2015.

They can still shrink a little bit, number of cores will
increase, size of caches will increase (the cost of a cache
miss is equivalent to a lot of instruction using cache), smarter
CPU's (maybe even more CISCy), fundamental new technologies
(even though I suspect they will not be generally available
as soon as 2015).

Arne
.

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