Re: Learning from SJ

In article <87zm20uu67.fsf@xxxxxxxxxx>, Don Geddis <don@xxxxxxxxxx>

Rainer Joswig <joswig@xxxxxxx> wrote on Fri, 13 Jul 2007:
In article <877ip5x7i6.fsf@xxxxxxxxxx>, Don Geddis <don@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
iPods, iPhones, and other things like Apple TV are turning Apple into
Sony, a broad consumer products company.

Definitely not Sony. Sony has no OS. They have to take what MS offers.

I fail to see why the OS makes such a difference in this analogy.

Apple wants definitely a bigger impact.

A bigger impact than Sony?

A bigger impact than they have now.

In the 1990's, Sony made piles of different
consumer electronics gadgets: walkmans, televisions, PCs, laptops, cameras,
etc. They were known as state-of-the-art design, awesome UI and easy-of-use,
pushing the envelope in quality and technology, etc.

I don't see that a lack of OS really hurt them. Or mattered at all.

That was the past. I used to have Sony gear, but now they
don't set trends anymore. I had a laptop, DAT recorder, disc man, ...
all Sony. Music has moved to computers. Apple sells the
player and the computer to record music. iTunes has
seen a quarter billion downloads. Software. Also for Windows.

And I don't see how it necessarily helps Apple. The iPod's domination of
MP3 players has basically nothing to do with OSX.

Wait a few months, next year iPods will be OSX based.

All the platforms are OSX. He moves OSX to all the platforms. iPods will
run OSX soon. He wants OSX on machines which are not PCs. Sales of consumer
machines suddenly will help improving OSX.

Could be, but why do you think this is important to the strategic business

Because gradually there is a larger base. Gradually there is a larger
eco-system for software.

It is also not the case that there is one big [PC] market. There is a
multitude of markets: corporate, private, gamers, developers, creative,
developers, home media, laptop, desktop, ...

You can segment the market, and dominate in a segment. In PC sales, niche
companies like Alienware and Voodoo and Falcon make very high-end gaming PCs.
Their total revenue is small compared to the overall PC market, but they
dominate in their niche.

In what niche do you think Apple dominates PC sales? Apple is a broad-based
PC company, attempting (but failing) to appeal to the average PC buyer.

I doubt they attempt to go after the average buyer. That
part of the market is not profitable.

It is also not about domination. In the overall PC market
or in submarkets it is a good start to be competitive.
To have a solution that people might buy and some even will

In 2005, it appears that Dell had 18% of worldwide sales, #2 HP, #3 Lenovo,
#4 Acer had 4.1%. In US-only sales, Dell was 33%, #2 HP, Gateway 6%, #5
Toshiba and Apple each at about 3.3%.

For 2006, in the US-only market, it looks like #1 Dell 31%, #2 HP 22%, #3
Gateway 6%, #4 Apple 5.8%, and #5 Toshiba 4.2%.

For Q1/2007, it looks like worldwide #1 HP at 19%, #2 Dell 15.2%, #3 tie
between Acer and Lenovo at 6.7%, #5 Toshiba at 4.3%.

Apple is doing great, and from 2005 to 2006 they increased their share of the
US PC market by about a percent. Which is awesome for a company.

Plus there part of the market is very profitable.

But come on. They're only 5% of just the US market, and barely a blip on the
overall world market. Jobs deserves a ton of credit for getting Mac sales
from the depths of 2-3% US share up to almost 6%. Keep in mind that in the
early days of the PC market, Apple had more like a 12-15% share, IIRC.

That market was smaller and less valuable?

If you think it is unfair to compare Mac sales to HP or Dell, then you've got
to be a little more concrete about exactly what market you think they're in.

Education, Creative, Developers, some Science, Small business,
Home users, Multimedia, ...

If Apple gets a pass on this comparison, then by the same token why do people
here care about Lisp popularity vs. Java or Python or Ruby? Perhaps they are
"different markets" also, and Lisp is already dominating its own market.

There are different markets. I'm not sure in which market Lisp
dominates. I'm not sure 'dominate' is also the right word.
I would start with being 'competitive' or even seen as competitive
in some markets. Whereas Apple as a software-based company
(really) has growth paths and is seen as competetive
in at least two business areas (relative and absolute), software
companies in the Lisp business seem to survive, but their growth
path is not so clear to me. So maybe there is something
to learn, how to expand a software business from a

Could be, but the existing comparisons are the most natural ones. If you
think a different one is more appropriate, then the burden on you is to
explain and defend the niche market.

-- Don
Don Geddis don@xxxxxxxxxx
I went on to test the program in every way I could devise. I strained it to
expose its weaknesses. I ran it for high-mass stars and low-mass stars, for
stars born exceedingly hot and those born relatively cold. I ran it assuming
the superfluid currents beneath the crust to be absent -- not because I wanted
to know the answer, but because I had developed an intuitive feel for the
answer in this particular case. Finally I got a run in which the computer
showed the pulsar's temperature to be less than absolute zero. I had found an
error. I chased down the error and fixed it. Now I had improved the program
to the point where it would not run at all.
-- George Greenstein
"Frozen Star: Of Pulsars, Black Holes and the Fate of Stars"